This is something that's been shuffling around in my head for a while now.
What happens when winter comes to Europe? I've read lots of articles about how European energy prices are exploding, but that's just an indicator of the real problem. Print and hand out all the Euros and Pounds you want, you can't make energy out of thin air. When it's all used up, it's gone, not available at any price.
People are going to get angry. Voting people in particular. Frightened politicians will need a scapegoat and who makes a better scapegoat than President Dementia? They can point to lots and lots of videos of him flexing his sagging, wrinkly biceps at Putin, but who is really paying the price for sending bombs instead of diplomats? How long will the German and Polish pols sit there and take the hits for his obsession with Vlad, particularly now that everyone can see that Russia isn't a threat to anyone?
I know this is a really crazy idea, but could this end NATO? If we get a hard winter, if the new holes in the Nordstream pipeline get bigger or cannot be repaired before cold weather and rough seas hit, if people start freezing in their homes, it will be really hard to keep following the lead of a guy who is clearly out of it.
Finally, who really cares about Ukraine anyway? Once the krauts take to the streets and demand heat, jettisoning Zelensky will make a lot more sense than stiffing die Männer und Frauen of Düsseldorf and waiting for them to respond with real rage.
PS - The greens have got to be toast by now.
Global Warming Climate Change is a hard sell when you're freezing your schnitzel off