Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Stay Closed Then

How much money do they need to stay closed?

That plea for money from someone else reveals the fundamental divide in this country. De Blasio cannot comprehend a civilization where the government isn't the prime mover, where it isn't necessary for the basic functions of life.

Meanwhile, Elon Musk sees things differently.

In Michigan, they're taking an even more direct approach. With guns.


Ohioan@Heart said...

So much to say...

1) DeBlasio should just announce that NYC is open. That costs $0. I've been fiddling with the numbers. When I assume that there are 32 unconfirmed cases for each confirmed case (this is the result from the only experiment I know of in NYC that can give it), I get that for the cases to be behaving like they are now (dropping by a factor of 0.74 each week), then NYC has seen somewhere north of 7.4 million cases (out of a population of 8.6 million). If they just threw the doors open, and every one of the uninfected people got infected in the next week, they'd only see their cases go from where they are now to numbers comparable to their peak, and then there would be NO ONE left to get the disease (of course that wouldn't happen the cases would grow in like they did back in March but in a population of 1.2 million versus 8.6 million, so a better estimate would be that after about 2 weeks they'd be at a secondary and final peak of about 2,000/day).

2) Here in CA the gloves have come off and we are seeing the true nature of our socialist politicians. We'd already seen huge job loss from the very misguided AB5 law (that basically outlawed the gig economy - unless you are willing to define yourself as an independent business - which, of course, requires filing paperwork with the state and a nice little annual fee!). The architect of that law is a local San Diego Assemblywoman, Lorena Gonzalez (D). In mid-April Assemblywoman Gonzalez had had a little twitter tirade in an exchange with a business owner (see the story here). Now she has gone after, in classic Democrat high-road fashion, Elon Musk (who is tired of waiting for all the 'powers that be' to approve him reopening his Tesla factory). I won't tell you what happened, but I invite you to go see the ad just placed in the San Diego Union-Tribune, as reported on KUSI.

3) Dr Fauci has been widely quoted as saying that if we reopen too fast or carelessly it will lead to "death and suffering". I have no doubt that is a true statement. But it is incomplete. We know that staying locked down is not completely effective and does not completely stop the virus or the death and suffering associated with it. It will drag it out over a much longer time (and the curve will be flat). But something he seems unwilling to include in his pronouncements is does the good doctor suggest that if we just stay closed another month or two that that wouldn't lead to other death and suffering (as food supply chains falter and more and more business become unable to reopen)? So which is better, do what we can to minimize the pain and open now, or wait until after we've completely trashed the economy in another couple months? No one has been willing to suggest that this is actually the dilemma we are faced with, and not deciding is just the cowards way of making the second choice.

and 4) our wonderful Goober has authorized two counties to open faster. Butte and El Dorado Counties (populations of 227,000 and 186,000 and CoViD-19 cases of 20 and 56, both respectively). Why didn't he authorize Alpine County (1,146 people a grand total of 1 CoViD-19 case)? Seriously? What is his problem?

The sad fact is that we must choose between the proverbial "Rock and a Hard Place". I am convinced that the time to open is upon us. Certainly, do so with masks, social distancing, and increased hygiene, and oh yeah, if you are old and/or have a known co-morbidity STAY HOME while the rest of the population builds something approximating herd immunity.

Mostly Nothing said...

Minnesota is set to start reopening on Monday. But there are hints that the governor will continue to extend, at least until the end of May.

KT, if you remember my wife and my rehearsal dinner back in '92, the first testimonial from Bill Koslak is that restaurant, Jax.

This is the reason the company needs to open. We had made reservations for April 11th to go for our anniversary.


The first comment is pretty accurate.

“Quarantine” is when you restrict the movements of a sick people. “Tyranny” is when you restrict the movements of a healthy people.
Just a fact.

Ilíon said...

This week, my employer is having staff meetings -- only a few of us at a time, due to "social distancing" -- to explain how we're going to re-open and operate starting next week. One of the things I learned at the meeting yesterday is that Kung Flu "cases" in our middling Ohio county are less than 1/1000.

Ilíon said...

Oh, and by the way, most of what we'll be required to do is just theater.

K T Cat said...

It's all theater. Every time we pump gas, unless we're wearing gloves, we're touching the hands of everyone else who pumped gas there.