Tuesday, December 21, 2021

Where Have All The Scientists Gone?

Dig this.

Who's running this show? There isn't a lick of sense in our reactions to Omnicorn*. It hit me this weekend when many English Premier League games were postponed and a bunch of NFL players were sidelined because they had tested positive for the Wuhan Flu. They are in a demographic - young, healthy men - that has practically zero risk of significant consequences no matter which variant it is and yet we behave as if it were Ebola.

This isn't science, it's voodoo. Is there anyone out there willing and able to speak up about this madness?

* - Omnicorn is a term coined by Matt Walsh.


tim eisele said...

" Is there anyone out there willing and able to speak up about this madness?"



I mean, at least half of what I see about this disease is people complaining bitterly about how it isn't that serious, and that we are over-reacting. It's not like there is any shortage of people calling it madness and demanding that we just go back to normal already.

The only question is, why aren't these people the ones who are in a position to change the policies? And I think the answer is that the people making the policies are scared of liability.

Even if they privately think they are over-reacting, they still have that doubt in their mind about what will happen if they turn out to be wrong. What if a new variant comes up that really is both highly contagious and highly lethal, and suddenly a million people are dead with millions more crippled, and their surviving relatives screaming for somebody to pay for the mistake? It might be unlikely, but if it happens then they are the ones that are going to get the blame. They will certainly lose their jobs if they said "it's nothing", and then it turned out to be very much not nothing. There's a good chance they'll get sued. They might even get lynched if it is bad enough.

So, from their perspective, it is better to have everyone kind of annoyed with them, than to take a chance on the remote outcome of a massive disaster where they get the blame, with the survivors coming after them with pitchforks and torches.

Ohioan@Heart said...

Sadly, Tim is right. The folks currently in power MUST continue the (now obviously false) premise that CoViD is going to kill everyone, and for exactly the reason Tim indicates (even above their desire to rule us as the serfs they consider us).

The best data I can find shows that South Africa (with very low vaccination rates, not that I think that will make much difference) says that they have total case rates of about 400 per million per day, while the death rate is about 0.6 per million per day. This suggests that the best estimate of the current death rate is on the order of 0.15% while the reported rate previously has been running around 2%. The doctors and health officials in South Africa are guessing numbers like 10 (or more) for the actual cases versus what they've actually confirmed. That would mean that the actual death rate would be more like 0.02% or less. [By the way the cases there are starting to go down already.]

If we use the 0.02% figure then if every American got Omicron tomorrow, the death total would come out around 66,000. No nobody really wants that number of deaths, but at what cost can we keep it down? Go back to shutting the country down? Drive the economy into total collapse (and print a few trillion more dollar to make inflation turn into hyper-inflation)? And obviously in a country like America where we have ~61% "fully vaccinated" (i.e., at least two shots, or one J&J) and 20% have had the third "booster" shot, we might expect that the death rate would be lower than that of South Africa.

I would also point out, by way of comparison, that the average flu deaths in US over the ten flu seasons 2010-2011 through 2019-2020 is 34,000 +/- 13,000. so a 66,000 death year is less than 2.5 standard deviations above the mean. Would anyone have even remotely contemplated doing draconian policies to stop a flu that was predicted to produce that number of deaths? Of course not. In fact, I would argue that we not only shouldn't institute shut down or any policy to reduce the spread of Omicron, it would make a lot of sense to embrace Omicron as a source of natural immunity.

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