Thursday, December 23, 2021

The Great Blue Experiment

Dig this excellent piece from Ayaan Hirsi Ali on the collapse of civilization in California. Here's a tidbit.

In my home state of California, smash-and-grab is fast becoming a way of life. Crime is a rampant, daily occurrence. Just this week, two of my close friends were robbed near San Francisco.

One owns a popular restaurant; the front door was destroyed, and the cash register robbed. The other was renting a car, the entire rear window of which was smashed to bits and the contents swiped. So common is this sort of looting and thievery that when he returned the rental car, he noticed that the car company’s lot was full of vehicles with broken windows.

We have friends who probably think Bernie Sanders is a moderate. They fully subscribe to Modern Nazi Race Theory and share books and links to discussions of Jewish White Supremacy, Jewishness Whiteness and Systemic Racism. They are as white as snow, too.

They recently visited SanFran and came back vowing never to return. When the proggiest of progs notices the decay in their Mecca, you know it's real.

I would posit that the blue cities are conducting a fascinating experiment.

Does a city need productive people?

Think about what's happening here. As the blue cities become more and more unlivable, productive people, the ones with the most to lose, are leaving. As time goes on, the remaining population will tilt more and more towards the drug addicts, criminals and granola crunchers. Once a person leaves SanFran and moves to Miami, they don't usually come back.

Just for the chemists in the group, I'm looking at you, Tim and Ohioan, the decision to move is analogous to a chemical reaction which requires an activation energy to start.

Peter Productive starts in SanFran. His car windows get smashed which provides him the activation energy to move to Jacksonville. Once there, Pete will require a new spike of activation energy to get him to move back to SanFran.

I can't see that happening with any kind of regularity. Once productive people leave, they will probably stay wherever they land.

So what? Does California really need productive people or can we replace them with printed money?

The experiment is already under way.

Update: The female cop who shot Daunte Wright by mistake was just convicted of manslaughter. Daunte was a violent criminal who resisted arrest and was driving away when he was shot. A violent criminal loose in the city in a 2-ton vehicle was worth more than a cop with a good record. It took place in Brooklyn Center, a burg just north of Minneapolis.

You would have to be insane to be a cop in a deep blue city.


tim eisele said...

I think that big cities basically have a life cycle. They initially start with some industry that pays well and draws in people like crazy (auto manufacture in Detroit, the "tech boom" in San Francisco, for example). Initially things are good, there is tons of money rolling around, and ever more people come to the party to sell goods and services to the people in the high-paying industries. And the criminal element comes in to get what they can from all of them. But then, the place gets overbuilt, real estate and rent prices skyrocket, and it starts getting too expensive for people to live there. Crime rates escalate. And finally, the original big industry that started the whole business, either closes down or moves someplace where it isn't so expensive to do business. So, the people who can afford to, then move away. This leaves the low-skilled people (who don't have the money to move away) and the criminal element. While this is happening, things start to go to pieces. And most of the things that the city government tries to do about it end up either being pointless or counterproductive, because they can't address the root problem that the city is now on the wrong side of its life cycle. Whatever confluence of advantages originally made it attractive were most likely a fluke in the first place, and getting lightning to strike twice is typically a losing proposition.

If you want to see the probable future for San Francisco, look at Detroit. Eventually they'll stabilize and become, if not desirable, at least tolerable. But it is going to be bad for a while. And while places like Austin and Miami are doing well for the moment because they are on the upside of their growth cycle, their day will come soon enough.

Ohioan@Heart said...

I agree with most of Tim’s comments. I disagree with him at the very end about those other cities just being on the upswing. That is also my main disagreement with KT. The folks that leave SF to go to Jacksonville will find the decay will set in way faster than either of them recognized. That’s because the rot is already underway in big cities across the country due to the long term control of those locations by the double L’s (Lunatic Left). The other problem is many of those folks who move but then continue their own voting for the left.

As to me (and the Mrs), I’d would have already become a leftugee, if not for her. She simply doesn’t want to move far away from the grandkids. I don’t either, but the writing is on the wall. San Diego has recently shifted from governance by a fairly balanced group to Dems with veto proof super-majorities. The policies have shifted with them. CoViD has allowed them to clearly reveal their natural totalitarian tendencies. I have hope that the kids and grandkids will move soon (even if we don’t move with them) as I want them to go where they and the grandkids will have a better chance at a good future. The oldest was looking for a new job in Texas, and landed a 5-year assignment in Japan. The middle is finishing up a Masters degree and talking about moving once it is done. The youngest is happy with the Dems (can’t raise them all right). Since the grandkids are with the first two, if they go, I will lean hard for going elsewhere.

Mostly Nothing said...

So the Brooklyn Park cop was found guilty and the judge ordered her held without bond. Meanwhile, violent criminals are released with little or no bail. A convicted felon who attacked a cop got a suspended sentence that was only 365 days.

The thug (BLM leader in Minnesota), who lead a group protesting this judge and went into her condo complex making a scene demanding that the trial be televised, wasn't event arrested. Oh, he wasn't arrested in Minnesota, he was arrested in Kenosha for threating the jurors down there. BTW, the judge reversed her decision a day or two later, and said it had nothing to do with the veiled extortion by this guy.

While there is a natural life cycle to a city, it is accelerated by the reign of terror of the left. Currently, in Minneapolis, there is a 2 party system, the far left, and the Bat-bleep crazy left. And the far left isn't winning most of the time. Moderate Democrats need not apply. It's been more that 50 years since a republican has had any elected office there.

My son reports that there are many Californians moving to Idaho. He was talking to some new neighbors that said they were getting Idaho plates on their cars as quickly as they can, California plates are looked at with distrust. For good reason. My son is using every last month he can on his car with Minnesota plates. We have a history of selling a car about a month or 2 after getting the yearly tabs.

While I'm not leaving Minnesota, at least I'm moving farther away from the tall buildings. And into an area that my vote may actually count. In my time in Minnesota, I can only remember one governor elected that got my vote. No representative or senator, and no other state elected official. And no, I didn't vote for Ventura. Actually, didn't vote that year. I had 15 minutes of non-work or non-family obligations while the polls were open.

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