Wednesday, August 04, 2021


Operation Barbarossa was the 1941 invasion of International Socialist Russia by National Socialist Germany. I'd recommend it as a baseline for massive campaigns. I'm not sure if there have ever been any bigger ones, but I'd bet my bottom dollar that Barbarossa was in the top 3 of all time. At the start of hostilities in 1941, the Germans had 3,800,000 men under arms and the Russians 2,700,000.

This year, it looks like we will see between 2 and 3 million illegals come across our southern border. July alone saw 210,000 apprehensions by the Border Patrol, up from 189,000 in June. That's apprehensions, not crossings. Just as a rough guess, let's assume that another 50% weren't even apprehended, bringing July's totals to around 300,000. Carried out for a year, that's 3,600,000, or roughly the size of the Wehrmacht as it marched into the Soviet Union.

Dig this drone shot from Texas.

Texas officials are screaming bloody murder, but since they're not their own, sovereign country, they can't enforce their border laws.

If they became their own nation, they'd be able to do that.

A House Republican from Texas called for the state to consider shutting down ports of entry until the crisis at the Mexican border has been resolved.

Chip Roy, who represents a central Texas district, called for Texas to prohibit even legal travel between the United States and Mexico, a move that would halt millions, if not billions, of dollars in trade.

"We're getting to a point right now where we ought to consider just shutting down the ports of entry, to send a loud signal to the United States that we're not going to deal with this anymore," Roy told Newsmax TV Tuesday morning. "I want the attorney general of the United States to come down to Texas, look me in the face, and tell me he's going to do something to stop Texans from securing our border. It's time. We need to do it ourselves."

Meanwhile, my Church, whose prelates have grown up in a world of printed money paying for their political "compassion," is flipping the bird to their fellow citizens.

For the first time in my life, I've found myself wanting to remove the tax exemption for religious institutions. If you don't care about other Americans, why should we care about you?

Add the Church to the list of institutions I no longer trust. Many in our leadership have gone just as woke bonkers as all the rest of the cocooned Elites.

Not to worry. All of this will come to a head soon enough.


Kelly the little black dog said...

You realize that you are also a "cocooned Elite."

tim eisele said...

"Just as a rough guess, let's assume that another 50% weren't even apprehended"

Um. So, you don't know this? You are fear-mongering based on a rough guess?

The numbers you are posting seem deeply suspicious. As in, the population of Mexico is 127 million, and your estimated 3.6 million in one year would be nearly 3% of their population. Even the states in the US with the greatest exodus of people leaving for other states, aren't losing 3% of their population per year, and there aren't even any legal barriers to interstate migration. West Virginia, which had the highest population loss, only lost 3.2% of their population in a decade I don't see where there would be that kind of exodus from Mexico and Central America unless entire towns are being driven out at gunpoint. And if they are being driven out at gunpoint, then I can see why the Catholic Church would be treating it as a humanitarian crisis.

So, how sure are you that the numbers you are bandying about are in any way accurate?

K T Cat said...

The 210,000 comes from the Border Patrol who admit that the number isn't complete. I have friends in the Border Patrol who tell me how out of control the situation is.

I've also seen drone footage showing cartels using family groups as diversions. While the Border Patrol rounds them up, a mile away in a spot where the BP had been, masses of men are rushing across those undefended sites.

tim eisele said...

That doesn't change the fact that, yesterday, you were complaining about other people's "fear porn" that they are passing on as truth when it is actually third-hand, slanted, and subjective information from people with an axe to grind.

And now, today, you are fear-mongering yourself, based on third-hand, slanted, and subjective information that you got from people who have an axe to grind.

You asked "why all the fear porn?" Well, I guess you are in a good position to answer that question. Why are you doing it?

Ilíon said...

Invasion -- and conquest -- doesn't always require soldiers with guns.

Google "morocco green march" --

Ilíon said...

^^ And that post is a perfect example of why I consider Tim Eisele to be just a slicker/more polished version of OneBrow.

K T Cat said...

Tim, the drone videos I've seen lately have been mind-blowing. Add the stats on top of that and you get a serious situation.

One more tidbit: Up until about a month ago, San Diego's primary fixed asset, our Convention Center, had been used to house illegals. You don't do that if you're not packed to overflowing at almost every other site. Risking damage to your top property isn't something done lightly. Or maybe it is. Money printer go BRRR and all that.

As for the other things, check out the fatality rate of Covid. It's dropping. Try to find some significant white supremacist action. Check out CO2 emissions by nation and let me know what you find.

Some things, like debt, crime, degeneracy and open borders are legit crises. Other things aren't.

K T Cat said...

Ilion, I object to that characterization of Tim.

I hadn't heard of the Green March. I'm not sure the analogy holds as this is being driven by the cartels more than the Mexican government.

K T Cat said...

One more thing, Tim. As we live next to the thing, this kind of lawlessness at the border bodes ill for crime in our city. Not sure if you've seen the travel warning the State Department puts out about Mexico, but there are some states that are no-go due to the drug cartels having taken over. This invasion isn't just immigrants, refugees and kids being smuggled as sex slaves. Given how wealthy we are, the cartels are coming in force to grab a piece of our pie.

Ilíon said...

The Mexican government -- regardless of which party is formally in power -- has been intentionally conducting a slo-mo "Green March" against the US for decades.

Ohioan@Heart said...


KT took a SWAG at '50% are not apprehended'. You disagree. So let's see what data we can find...

From 2010 - 2020 apprehensions on the southern border averaged about 400,000/year (see the plot at ).

In "Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States: January 2015–January 2018" from the United States Department of Homeland Security we see that the number of such people has stayed fairly stable over this period at about 11,400,000. Of those "About 15 percent entered since January of 2010." (See

First, if over the time period 2010-2018, 15% of 11,400,000 entered the country (and assuming that NONE OF THEM LEFT) the estimate for the annual number is 190,000/year. Of course some will leave each year, and so we KNOW that is an underestimate, but it would be very difficult to determine how far off it is. Fortunately later in the same article they say, "The subset of the unauthorized population that arrived since 2010 added an average of 310,000 people each year from 2015-2018". Sweet.

As to how many get to stay, well currently the expulsion rate is "about half" and are gone back to Mexico within the day (due to special CoViD rules Trump introduced and Biden has maintained). But previously that number was much lower - more like 10%. (see: ).

So with apprehensions around 400,000/yr and 10% expelled, that's 360,000/yr that get to stay in the US for their asylum hearing. Of those (according the Department of Justice, via the Washington Post here: they admit that "44% fail to appear". So that's 158,400 who have disappeared. Of the 201,600 who do show up, there is a historical approval rate of about 45% (see: ), so we are down to 90,720 who get to stay LEGALLY. That represents a net of less than 23% that are able to become permanent legal residents. That's interesting, but not what I was after... but fear not!

The more interesting calculation is to take the net number arriving each year (310,000) and remove all the ones we can account for from the apprehensions (158,400). That's something like 150,000 who are arriving each year but slipped past the "apprehension" step. So that 150,000 is the best estimate I can kludge up for those who are not apprehended and represents about 37.5% of those apprehended. Not quite KT's rough 50%, but not so far as to make his argument fail. Besides I would posit that if the number of apprehensions rise (and currently they are WAY up), the number slipping by is likely to rise even faster, making the percentage bigger, and could be as big as 50% currently.

K T Cat said...

Ohioan is a better mathematician than I am.

At 37%, that makes the illegals equal to the Soviet Army of 1941. That's pretty substantial.

Ilíon said...

Tim's "objection" isn't to KT's numbers or percentages, but to the mere fact that KT is objecting to a wide-open border.

tim eisele said...

1. Ohioan: Thanks for taking the time to actually track down some numbers. It looks like your final estimate is somewhere around 360,000/year. That's still a lot, and obviously a problem, but it is only about one tenth of KT's original WAG of 3.6 million/year.

2. KT: What I am upset about is that you decided to take a number that was so huge that it should have immediately triggered your "whoa, that seems excessive, maybe I made a math mistake?" senses, and instead decided to run with it. So now you are making overinflated claims of impending doom based on massive overestimates of the actual danger, which is .

3. Ilion seems to be under the mistaken impression that I come here just to argue. Actually, the arguments are what have occasionally made me consider not coming here anymore. KT and I have been reading each other's blogs since about 2008, or about 13 years. This was mostly based on a shared interest in bugs, plants, wildlife photography, and improvisational engineering. The thing is, KT, over the years you've been gradually been getting more politics-heavy, to the exclusion of almost everything else that you used to post about. I see you apparently being lured off of the deep end by conspiracy theorists and panic-mongers that do not have your best interests at heart, and I am concerned about it. But I don't know what to do for you, other than wave and try to get you to swim closer to shore, and hope that they don't get a firm enough grip on your ankles to finally pull you under.

One Brow said...


I'm not here just to argue, either. I actually earn quite a bit around here.

One Brow said...

K T Cat,
I hadn't heard of the Green March. I'm not sure the analogy holds as this is being driven by the cartels more than the Mexican government.

There's also the distinction between it being colonial land versus land integral to Spain.

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One Brow said...

I'm not here just to argue, either. I actually earn quite a bit around here.
*learn, although likely some will think that wasn't a typo.

Ohioan@Heart said...


I always enjoy data search and analysis, so you just thanked me for being the total geek I am. Still... Thanks!

You also missed the point. You latched onto 360,000 - the number of people who cross illegally AND STAY in the US each year and then compared that to the number KT SWAGged coming in illegally at 3,800,000. Apples and Oranges.

A better comparison would be the expected number that will be apprehended this year (scaled up by a factor of 1.37) to the 3,800,000. But the expectation (at this point admittedly about 50% of the year) for the number of apprehensions is between 2 and 3 million. Scaled up those become 2,700,000 - 4,000,000. Really not so far from KT's number.

What's even worse is that the number here illegally is essentially constant over the last 14 years at 11,400,000 (this is from figure 1 in the DHS report I referenced above and does not include data after 2018). That's 3 times the 3,800,000. The German's were expelled from Russia in less than 4 years (the invasion began June 22, 1941 and they were certainly gone by the date of Germany's final surrender on May 7, 1945). The people here illegally apparently receive asylum in less than 1 case in 4. So at minimum, 8.5 million (more than the Soviet and German armies combined!) are here illegally, will not be allowed to stay permanently, yet they are allowed to stay for years and years. How many years? Hint: the DHS paper said of the 11.4 million 15% had entered since 2010. So that means 85% (9.7 million) had at that point already been here for more than 8 years. That's more people than the city of New York. Which leads me to this closing.

If there are people who are rightly worried about the illegal population it is likely to be those of us who live near the border. Remember the saying 'All Politics is Local'. So just for giggles and chuckles I looked up the distance from Atlantic Mine, MI and East St. Louis, IL to the US/Mexico border. Google Earth(TM) says they are about 1,378 and 887 miles, respectively. By comparison, my house to the border is 18 miles. KT would be similar (I think). So I think it is fair to assume that we may have a very different point of view on the issue, and quite possibly a more intimate awareness of the problem(s). And if that's not enough, let me close with this: According to Newsweek, "Enough People Crossed the Border in 2021 to Create the 10th-Largest City in the U.S.". (see: ) and that's SO FAR this year. At the expected numbers it will end up being some where bigger than number 3 (Chicago - 2,670,000) and smaller than number 2 (Los Angeles - 4,090,000).

One Brow said...


I'm sure Belleville is only a couple of miles closer than East St. Louis. I agree being closer to the border would change our perspective, but I'm also sure plenty of non-immigrants who live within in a couple of square miles would also disagree with you on immigration, so perhaps it's not entirely locale?

We seem to be close enough that we have migrant workers at the farms around here. In fact, my former employer (a Federally Qualified Health Center) had a substantial number of Spanish-speaking patients, many of whom were migrant workers.