Thursday, March 12, 2020

Odds And Ends, Coronavirus, Election And Money Edition

Some random thoughts for today.

Sickness


  • As I understand it, the average age of Corona death in China is 80. In Italy, it's 82. Bad chest colds whack the elderly, particularly when they are already weakened by something else. How is this not just a bad chest cold?
  • I may have it. I have a chest cold right now. It's not getting worse, it's just sitting there. Meh.
  • I've decided to skip the gym until this blows over. Despite my chest cold, I could easily do my normal workout routine. I've been at this for a few months and I was seeing really good results. Curse you, Coronavirus! I want to lift!
  • I'd like to see a city-wide Coronavirus test performed somewhere. I wouldn't be surprised to see the infection rate be about 5x what we think it is. If it's just a bad cold, most people won't even know they have it.
  • This is going to accelerate the transition of Europe into Eurabia. Ethnic Europeans are old while the Muslims are young. Of the couple hundred dead in Italy, what's the bet that 95% of them were ethnic Italians?
  • If you want to keep your country, try having babies.
  • Japan must have panicked when they saw the morbidity stats. Talk about a country of old people! It's a tribute to Japanese efficiency that they haven't had thousands of deaths.
  • Dig the deaths in Seattle. Almost all of them came from the same nursing home.
  • I hope frequent commenter ligneus stays safe. I've been thinking of him. Love you, man. If you're reading this, know that I'm praying for you.

Political Sickness


  • When will the racism foot soldiers wake up? Kamala Harris accused Joe Biden of racism on a debate stage, now she wants him to be president. Right. Like that wasn't empty of meaning. When do the rank and file realize that it's always been empty of meaning?
  • Joe Biden has clearly lost it. He's getting worse every day. I watched this happen to my dad. The tipoffs to me are the emotional outbursts and fantasies. Near the end, my dad summoned me to his house to tell me how to manage their trust once they passed. He had done this in great detail before, when he was still all there. This time was different. He had angry outbursts and his stories melted together. His recollection of the past was a mess. That's where Joe Biden is now.
  • No one in his entourage has love or compassion for Joe. I can't tell if his wife is part of the vulture cabal or if she's trapped and can't get out. She's either weak or evil. If she was strong and loved her man, she'd tell the world what was happening and torpedo his campaign for his own good.
  • Watching the Democrats push this poor old man around is sickening. They're all sitting behind him, looking to cash in on the power if he wins. I wouldn't be surprised if the party replaced him after the convention in a "compassionate" move due to "health concerns." Meanwhile, Buttigieg, Harris, Klobuchar, Booker and the rest have their utensils out and bibs on, ready to devour the spoils.
  • I agree with Tucker, Sanders is a total loser. He didn't crush Hillary with her email crimes when he had the chance and he refuses to go after Biden's cognitive decline. Video below.

Sickness and Money


  • We got out of the market around the top, maybe after one day's Coronaviral decline. I'm wondering when to get back into stocks.
  • If I was smart, I'd set a number and go all in when the market fell to that point and treat it as the normal SP500 buy and hold. That is, put in your money and then walk away for a few years.
  • Once we realize that this pandemic is just a bad cold, the market will skyrocket and the opportunity for a huge gain will be lost.
  • The old adages about not worrying if you got in at the exact bottom or got out at the exact top are super valid here. Set a number and go with it. This isn't the Omega Man scenario. You can see that now because the early virus adopters aren't getting wiped out. The virus hits, kills a few people and then peters out.
There. Those are the preposterous thoughts rattling around in my empty head these days. Take care, all. I hope you all stay healthy.


Bonus Tidbit


Dig this.
The Sacramento County Department of Public Health announced Monday it has moved past trying to contain the virus and is now hoping to mitigate its impact as new cases are reported. Placer and Yolo counties also announced they are shifting strategies in stopping the spread of COVID-19.

The most at-risk populations are the elderly and people with underlying health issues, including lung, heart and weakened immune systems.

The effort is now focused on protecting the at-risk population while encouraging healthy residents to follow simple protocols to self-quarantine as you would with any other flu or common cold, according to Dr. Peter Beilenson, director of the Department of Health Services for Sacramento County.
When government officials in the capitols of big states start treating this like cold and flu season, the panic is probably near its peak.

Who knows, I might be able to go back to the gym next Monday. By then, my Coronavirus ought to have cleared up, too.

11 comments:

Ohioan@Heart said...

I don't know if those thoughts were "random", but they sure are widely varying. In rough order:

Sickness: Mrs. Ohioan and I had a mild "cold" about 3 weeks ago that had us coughing for days (maybe a week to 10 days). Was it early Corona Virus? Unlikely, OK VERY unlikely, but who knows? We've decided to not worry. We are washing our hands, and otherwise living our lives.

Political Sickness: Anyone who can actually think has known for years that "racism" is almost always an empty word. (I mean Hispanics groups openly call themselves "La Raza", but that's not racist? You will hear people say "black people can't be racist". Come again? That's practically an oxymoron. Etc, etc, etc.) Yes, Joe needs to stop (or be stopped) for his own good. The gaffes of the last few days have clearly pulled the curtain back from his issues (but then we saw video of Hillary practically fall on her butt and they continued with the "everything's fine" story - Aside: I couldn't help but think of this Steve Martin bit, go to the 1:00 mark).

Sickness and Money: Agree with everything you've written. I am also currently out of the market, and trying to figure out when to go back in to not miss most of the bounce back. For now I've decided to wait for the news to get better in Italy. Once we have real numbers there, and assuming they end up bad but not apocalyptic, and the cases in the US seem to be moderating, that's when I am going back in. I'd guess that that will take between a month or two. If there is good news on this front, I suspect that the rise back up will take longer than the down did (it will require the virus to be widely under control AND the supply chains to get back rolling), so missing the first bit of back up should't be too bad.

Foxfier said...

I'd like to see a city-wide Coronavirus test performed somewhere. I wouldn't be surprised to see the infection rate be about 5x what we think it is. If it's just a bad cold, most people won't even know they have it.

I would guess more like 25 times what anybody thinks it is-- they keep finding kids and other healthy folks who have no symptoms at all but test positive for it, when they actually check. (Usually it's because a family member was tested; in several cases, tested "just in case.")

K T Cat said...

Ohioan - The Italy test for the market is a good idea. If it keeps going through their population, killing people, even if the numbers are below normal flu season, the panic won't end. Upside taking longer than downside is another good observation. Maybe we can relax about going back into the market.

K T Cat said...

Foxie - I hadn't thought about the younger set. You're right, they don't seem to have the symptoms, but you can be sure some of them have it in a mild form.

ligneus said...

I'm most honoured by your words, thoughts and prayers KT, thank you. I suppose given my age, just turned 84 and heart condition I'd be lucky to survive it, didn't really think about it. On the other hand I'm still working every day on my son's house in Hamilton Ont. don't go out much, maybe I'll stop my occasional weekends in Toronto where I live. On the other other hand [does that make three hands?!!!] at 84 I've had a good run, never really sick up to about a year and a half ago so I can't complain if my time is up. Just give me three more months Lord to get this house finished!

Some good articles at Ricochet today inc one on the use of rheumatoid arthritis drugs to treat coronavirus. Also one on cv and the stock market.
https://ricochet.com/730834/drugs-that-work-on-corona/

While I'm here, a new collection of Milton Friedman, looks interesting.
https://fee.org/articles/why-do-so-many-intellectuals-oppose-capitalism/

One day I should tell you how I came by the name Ligneus!

Ohioan@Heart said...

Ligneus - Good to heat from you. I’d highly recommend a good dose of social distancing for you. Remember, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. (Sometimes old wisdom is still the best! ��)

Ohioan@Heart said...

Hmmm... That bizarre thing (things) at the end was supposed to be a smiley face.

K T Cat said...

ligneus! What a pleasure to hear from you again! God bless you, old boy.

Tell me, are you still lifting 2x4 studs and hammering them in?

ligneus said...

Thank you for your advice Ohioan, I shall take it! I've been living a bit the hermit life down here in Hamilton, I shall just do so more consciously.

KT, I've been a year and eight months doing a reno on this old Victorian house my son bought, the kitchen on the back was just built on the dirt, had to put in footings, dig out a crawl space and pretty much re-build it, two bathrooms, insulation, floors, electrical, you name it! So I have about three months work left then I have to decide what to do, a friend wants me to do his bathroom, another wants her kitchen done, half of me thinks I'm stupid the other half is a little scared of stopping work as I think all this work has helped me with the heart thing. On my last check up six months ago the good Dr Luk [great name!] came in afterwards and she said, Good news, your heart is functioning normally! But it has slowed me down, I find seven hours a day is enough. So my recent birthday marks 69 years at work, I should make it a round 70. I've been very lucky, still haven't been in hospital overnight my whole life.

K T Cat said...

7 hours a day at 84 years old?

Slacker!

;-)

My advice, from someone who could be your son, despite my own age, is to stay productive as long as you can. It killed my parents when they stopped, albeit involuntarily.

ligneus said...

Yeah, I'm a lazy bum! Eighteen months ago before the heart thing happened I was still doing ten hour days no problem.