Bad, But Still The Best

I guess the text of the MOU with Iran is out. I've seen people on X, people I respect, howling that it is a terrible deal. Such adjectives are subjective, not objective. Whatever is in the MOU hardly matters. We did as well as could have been expected, given the global situation.

I'm still in Alabama, working while doing the 1031 Sprint. That's where, in pursuit of fulfilling the requirements of a 1031 capital gains tax exchange, we must get our new properties up and rented as fast as possible. I don't have time for a long post, but I wanted to get these noodlings down on the blog.

The only leverage Iran really has is the Strait of Hormuz. That leverage vanishes if we and our allies provide sufficient surface combatants to escort shipping going through the strait. In short, the Europeans and Asians lack both the will and the capability to do this. We're not talking a fleet like the one that took Okinawa in 1945, we're talking a dozen or so destroyers and frigates. The Euros could not protect shipping from primitive threats even if they wanted to and they don't want to because they've allowed themselves to be colonized by Islam.

Because the Euros could not protect shipping, we had to draw the line here, pack up our gear and go home. That in itself was a wise decision as the alternative was another neocon-style quagmire in the Middle East.

This is a watershed moment. Absent a violent spasm of Western patriotism and cultural confidence, this marks the point at which Islam can exert substantial and obvious power over Europe.

Thanks to our own poor decisions and lack of funding for the Navy, specifically the decision to build LCSs instead of the more expensive and capable DDGs and FFGs, we were not capable of providing those escorts ourselves. In that environment, this MOU was about the best outcome we could have expected, given Trump's aversion to war. The only other alternative would have been to carry out his threat to destroy all power plants and bridges and leave Iran in the Stone Ages. President Trump could not bring himself to inflict that kind of suffering on Iran.

Still, even with all those limitations, the war accomplished some good and important things. Iranian leadership was decapitated. The Iranian military, save for its infantry, has been effectively annihilated*. The Iranian propagandists, both within Iran and within the West, will claim victory, but that's ridiculous. Just compare Iran's international position a year ago to today.

The Chinese didn't do so good, either. Their military hardware was shown up badly. The other Gulf states are actively working to divorce themselves from the Strait via pipelines and harbors outside the Gulf. Once that's complete, Iran will never again have this much leverage.

Iranian influence took a massive hit. Iran's standing with their neighbors did as well as a result of their indiscriminate attacks on all around them. Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis are all scrambling around trying to figure out how to protect themselves now that their sugar daddy has been curb stomped.

In the end, it was a good result, probably about as good as one could hope, given the circumstances.

God, I miss the Royal Navy.

* - People will say that the Iranians can rebuild their military quickly and bandy about budgetary figures for ships and aircraft as if the military was a spreadsheet. It isn't. Think instead in terms of not just replacing the hardware, but having to rebuild a generation of NCOs and skilled support personnel as well as all the support infrastructure that got destroyed. How long does it take, for example, to build a modern pier, complete with loading and umbilical systems for an FFG? Now multiply that across the whole country for the Iranian navy and air force.

America Was Not Built On Slavery

 ... because not much of anything can be built on slavery.

Goofing off with AI (read: ChatGPT) recently, working on a silly alternate history idea, one of the biggest drawbacks to slavery finally sunk in to me. I knew that Southern planters used slaves as loan collateral, locking themselves into the institution financially, but I never really understood how anti-free market capitalism it was.

In short, slaves are a terrible way to invest capital. You can get the slaves, you just can't get rid of them if they are no longer useful. Slaves are like a tar pit for your capital.

Imagine you've got a spread in east Texas. You can either raise cattle or grow cotton. You decide to grow cotton and buy some slaves to tend and harvest the cotton. Thanks to Eli Whitney, you make decent money. A decade later, some kind of mineral deposit is found underneath your property. To exploit it, you've got to ditch the cotton.

Oops. It's not the use of the property that's the problem, it's the slaves. You can't get rid of them because no one will buy that many. You can't free them because your mortgage is backed by them. You can't kill them because, despite what foam-at-the-mouth abolitionists might say about you, you're not a monster. You may be a full-blooded eugenicist, but the slaves are still human to you. The slaves don't have the engineering skills you need to work the minerals.

You're trapped in cotton.

If you had chosen to raise cattle and foregone the slaves, when you found the minerals, you could slaughter the herd, sell the beef and move on to the better opportunity.

In a way, the Deep South trapped itself in a get-rich-quick scheme. Eli Whitney's cotton gin made cotton a tremendously valuable crop and slavery made the labor costs relatively low. Agriculture circa 1850 was very labor intensive. Once the land owners made those decisions, there was no easy way out.

The rest of the country, nay, the rest of the Western world, was moving on to better industries, but the South couldn't follow along because slavery had trapped them.

There was another problem that affected the whole region at the time. Europeans with valuable skills and ambition were emigrating to the US. Almost none of them went to the South. An immigrant was destined to start at the bottom and have to work his way up to success. In the South, he'd have to compete with slave labor so his initial fortunes were likely to be fairly desperate. The South missed out on the advantages European immigrants offered.

Historians like to point to the lack of factories, railroads and population for the reasons the Confederacy was not able to win its independence. Nah. It was slavery.

Good Lord, I'm trapped in this infernal cotton!

It's Good To Be Home

I was an Air Force brat. As such, I grew up in Boston, Los Angeles, Alexandria, Oklahoma City, Los Angeles again and then San Diego. I never felt like any place was home. I've been in San Diego now for 40+ years, but it still doesn't feel like home. I don't know why, it just doesn't. Maybe it's living in the Southwest.

I hate the desert and San Diego is coastal desert.

Whatever the reason, I never felt any place was home until I visited Mobile, Alabama. It makes no Earthly sense at all, it just is. Sometimes the energy of a place just fits.

A few days ago, we closed on a house on the Fish River in Baldwin County, just across the Mobile Bay from the city proper. We're still scrambling to prepare it to be a vacation rental because we're not moving here permanently. Grandkids in San Diego, you understand. Actually wife kitteh is scrambling. I'm working remotely, earning money for our middle son's family who have a severely autistic son.

The house was owned by an older couple who moved across the Bay, north of Mobile, to be be closer to their own grandchildren. As is normal with an older couple, the place had not been kept up properly. The dishwasher sounds like it's been smoking 2 packs a day for decades when the drain pump kicks on. The dryer sounds like it's warming up for takeoff. The house itself was dirty and the HVAC needed servicing in a serious way. And so on and so forth.

We've got most everything squared away and we're starting to relax into the house. Wife kitteh, my Chicago born and bred beauty, whose favorite line is, "You'd never make it in Chicago," only acquiesced to the purchase of this house as an "I love you" to me. She's coming to understand the Deep South. Everyone is friendly, polite and, much to her surprise, conscientious and competent. Outside of the cable company, which operates in Bangalore or some such benighted place, all of the professionals we've hired have taken a personal interest in taking care of our needs.

It hasn't surprised me at all. It's one of the reasons I fell in love with Dixie.

The place has character and I'll share it with you over time when I get the chance. In the meantime, here is the evening view from our boathouse deck. A Montecristo White Churchill, my favorite cigar, and a Ghost in the Machine hazy IPA from Louisiana was a perfect end to our first day on the river.

Hope things are going well for you, too.

The Slow Death Of The Royal Navy

I thought this was stunning. As you watch it, track the number of frigates in service.