Sunday, November 01, 2020

Covid Ain't What It Used To Be

Check out the shapes* of these two curves.

Daily new cases across the US.

Daily deaths across the US.

This tells me our relationship with the virus has changed significantly. Its lethality has declined over time. During the first spike in April, idiots like Governor Cuomo took the worst possible actions and stuffed sick people right into the middle of the most vulnerable populations - nursing homes. The result was a slaughter.

By the time of the George Floyd riot spike, in June and July, we had learned quite a bit and the death toll only rose slightly. Social distancing and the vulnerable taking steps to protect themselves probably saved many lives.

Now we're in the cold weather spike. In terms of viral exposure, the worst place to be is indoors with others. All the masks and social distancing in the world won't save you if you're in an enclosed area with an infected person for a long period of time. Viruses are highly-efficient spreading machines. Spreading is what they do.

Killing isn't what they do any more, at least not with the efficiency of the Cuomo-ignorance era. Again, it looks to me like the population has gotten wise to the virus' tricks and vulnerable people are taking steps. Our treatments have improved as well. We now give patients large doses of covfefe**, which is helping.

We might want to send the kids back to school and return to our normal lives, but that's not popular among the super-intelligent Elites, so I'm not holding my breath.

Anyway, that's what I get out of the graphs. Of course, as a Catholic conservative, I hate SCIENCE!, so take it with a grain of salt.

* - My first mentor taught me to look at the shapes of curves as well as the numbers. Sometimes their shapes tell you more than the individual data points.

** - I think it's covfefe. It might be something else.


Ohioan@Heart said...

Another big reason the death rate is down is that the testing rate is WAY up. Instead of only testing the quite sick (as we were at the beginning) now we are doing contact tracing and testing all kinds of people who will never show symptoms. This produces inflated case numbers (relatively speaking) but the really sick are still the only ones actually dying. Just look at San Diego County. As of late April the most tests given in a day was in the low 300’s. This past week the lowest was over 7,800 and the highest was over 15,000. So that’s somewhere between 20 and 50 times more.

WC Varones said...

Probably we all should stay locked in our basements, at least until Trump is defeated.

WC Varones said...

Check out Holman Jenkins opinion pieces in WSJ (most recent yesterday if you want a physical copy from your library).

The virus is way more widespread and the fatality is way lower than the scaremonger MSM is telling people.

Foxfier said...

The most vulnerable to deadly effects are either dead or being protected, and the resumption of non-emergency medical treatment is preventing some of the secondary deaths blamed on COVID without wasting limited tests to confirm infection so that population is either protected or dead as well.

Add in a very high false positive rate, and a very high testing rate, and amplification in testing that means virus particles that couldn't form a viable culture are counted as an infection, and you get more recorded infections.