Stay out. Stay out. Stay out.
Our wars in the Middle East fooled us into thinking that the American military can take on anyone and win easily. The ME is tailor-made for our technical advantages in that it is mostly flat and devoid of significant vegetation. Our high data rate communications systems which give us an immense advantage in command and control all operate in the upper frequency bands. Jungle and rough terrain makes those comms systems unusable as foliage and rock absorb or deflect their radio waves. Send troops into Venezuela's hinterlands and they will simply vanish.
Dig this gorgeous, 360-degree video from Venezuela and imagine trying to control the terrain with infantry units who have, at best, voice comms.
With visibility cut down to tens of yards, observation drones practically useless and data communications reduced to 9600 baud, the enemy will be on nearly equal terms with our soldiers. Add to that the language barriers and unfamiliarity with the terrain and you've got the makings of a real disaster.
And that doesn't begin to consider urban combat and the debilitating heat and humidity.
Now assume you go in there and "win," whatever that means. You have ... what at that point? Is this Guidado character or whatever his name is some kind of cross between George Washington, Adam Smith and Saint Pope John Paul II? How about the populace? If they voted for free stuff before, aren't they likely to do it again?
The place is a paleolithic mess. The water and electric infrastructure is in total ruins. Food and food distribution systems are non-existent. There are plenty of guns and millions of desperate people. There is nothing to be gained from sending in troops and plenty to lose.
Stay out.
5 comments:
I agree. And on top of everything else, whichever side we weren't supporting would get a huge boost in popular support because they could then claim to be fighting the foreign invaders. Not to mention giving the Russians and Chinese an opportunity to make it into an old-style proxy war. There is nothing to gain by going in, and a heck of a lot to lose.
Yep. Let the Russians and Chinese spend their blood and treasure on that tropical Stalingrad. Have fun, kids!
We need to stay out.
Getting involved would most likely consist mostly of trying to stop the Russians from doing a physical invasion, or physically guarding the food for the starving civilians. (which would mean gunning down anybody trying to run them over-- a sitting duck situation, but no jungle involved)
Sadly, a lot of the problem is that there AREN'T that many guns. They disarmed the civilians years ago.
Why do people keep looking at freaking MEXICO and going "hey, yeah, that-- I think their gun policy is working wonderfully, let's do that."
Foxie, I'm all in favor of Russia invading the place. They're in lousy shape themselves and a prolonged excursion into a ruined nation thousands of miles away facing an angry populace would do nothing but exhaust them. Go for it, Ivan. Send in all the troops you want. Have fun extracting all that potential oil wealth with an infrastructure that's been allowed to decay into rubble.
Looting is, traditionally, how they repair themselves.
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