Tonight, the San Diego Padres (15-27) travel to Seattle to take on the Mariners (16-26). It promises to be a ghastly series. I wonder if the Theocracy's baseball expert, our Cantor of Chemistry, would be willing to break down the matchup for us.
Well let's start by looking at their records: Seattle is 16 and 26 while San Diego is 15 and 27. Basically that breaks down to they are both pathetic, but with records that close it's tough to predict how the series might go.
If one looks at the runs scored, RS, and runs allowed, RA, for both teams and applies the standard analysis where the predicited winning percentage, PWP, is approximately equal to RS*RS/(RS*RS+RA*RA), then we expect that the Padres really are as bad as their record (PWP=0.33 versus observed 0.36) while the Mariners are likely to be better than their current record (PWP=0.43 versus observed 0.38). Given this I expect the Padres to continue their freefall into the basement of baseball, while the Mariners are likely to get healthy on my poor pathetic Padres. :-(
Geez. I go on record that the Padres are lousy and will probably lose the series to the Mariners, and then they go out and win todays game. Just goes to show you how much I know...
Now that the Dlrow Series is complete I feel vindicated. The mighty Mariners won two out of three from the pitiful Padres.
The third game was a microcosm of the Padres season. They out hit their opponents 8 to 5, but managed only 2 runs to the Mariners 3. In this case, a good starting pitching effort wasted by a bull pen mini-failure because the anemic offense continues to sputter.
And now we hear that Peavy will miss tomorrow's start due to "a sore elbow". ICK.
3 comments:
Well let's start by looking at their records: Seattle is 16 and 26 while San Diego is 15 and 27. Basically that breaks down to they are both pathetic, but with records that close it's tough to predict how the series might go.
If one looks at the runs scored, RS, and runs allowed, RA, for both teams and applies the standard analysis where the predicited winning percentage, PWP, is approximately equal to RS*RS/(RS*RS+RA*RA), then we expect that the Padres really are as bad as their record (PWP=0.33 versus observed 0.36) while the Mariners are likely to be better than their current record (PWP=0.43 versus observed 0.38). Given this I expect the Padres to continue their freefall into the basement of baseball, while the Mariners are likely to get healthy on my poor pathetic Padres. :-(
Geez. I go on record that the Padres are lousy and will probably lose the series to the Mariners, and then they go out and win todays game. Just goes to show you how much I know...
Now that the Dlrow Series is complete I feel vindicated. The mighty Mariners won two out of three from the pitiful Padres.
The third game was a microcosm of the Padres season. They out hit their opponents 8 to 5, but managed only 2 runs to the Mariners 3. In this case, a good starting pitching effort wasted by a bull pen mini-failure because the anemic offense continues to sputter.
And now we hear that Peavy will miss tomorrow's start due to "a sore elbow". ICK.
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