Sunday, December 21, 2008

Why Analyst Ratings Aren't Worth a Hoot

Check out this price chart of Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX):


It's lost about 80% of its value since its high of 120 earlier this year. Right now on the WSJ page, 2 analysts out of 17 rate it a strong buy and 6 are rating it as a buy. Another 8 rate it as a hold. They rated it even higher than that 3 months ago when it was falling like a stone. With advice like that, you might as well pick your stocks with a dart board.

2 comments:

B-Daddy said...

KT,
I firmly believe that you can't pick stocks. The market has discounted all known factors. If there is some hidden factor that only you and company employees know, there is a phrase for that, "insider trading." For a fascinating account of one broker's personal journey see this article from Conde Nast Portfolio.

Anonymous said...

You mean you *don't* pick your stocks with a dart board? I understand that that is a proven technique for outperforming the majority of analysts.