Rational Vs Irrational

Many on the right, particularly Tucker Carlson, are fully convinced that the migrant crisis across the West is being driven by them. They are the oligarchs, the globalists, the shadowy cabal of multinational corporation leaders and they are motivated by profits.

Tucker and the others are wrong. The globalists may at one time have been leading the charge, but now the movement is dominated by crazy cat ladies and their cultural simps.

I asked ChatGPT why a globalist motivated by profit might want to encourage mass migration from the Third World to the West. I asked what metrics might be used to see if it was working. Here's its summary. Its long form was excellent, but I won't excerpt it here. If you want to see the full response, ask in the comments and I'll cut and paste it there.

If the “globalist conspiracy” theory were true, we would expect to see:

• Lower wages in low-skilled industries
• Soaring government and NGO spending on non-citizens
• Growing remittances to foreign countries
• Politically strategic demographic shifts
• Profiteering from housing and contract services
• Structural changes making enforcement difficult

Many of these are measurable and observable. The real debate lies in how to interpret them—as accidents of mismanagement, consequences of ideology, or symptoms of a deliberate strategy.

All of these have happened, but with diminishing returns. Many of them rely on government funding and as the government debt burdens in the West grow to unsustainable and unserviceable levels, those payoffs vanish. 

Now I'll enter the WayBack Machine and grab something I said in the past about this.

Look, a person still has to live somewhere. When the nefarious Elites finish sucking the blood from their countries, they will live ... where? In France where the Muslims are having their very own George Floyd moment? In San Francisco which is up to its eyeballs in drug addicts and crime? In Chicago where they can fall asleep to the sounds of diversity, err, gunfire?

Please, just stop with these thought-pieces. There is no plan.

(P)redictions about the future are impossible, not because the rules have changed, but because there are no longer any rules at all...

KT's Moral Chaos Hypothesis: People with power, whether that is economic, political or (para-)military, lost their Christian moral foundations a while back. They're only now realizing that a majority of the population has lost them as well. That means that all bets are off. There are absolutely no boundaries to behavior any more. Money, sex, power, it's all up for grabs and you'd be a fool not to take what you want.

Not KT's Moral Chaos Hypothesis: There is no cabal of the powerful guiding anything in any direction in particular. It looks like that from time to time because the interests of some subset of the powerful align temporarily and they all pull in the same direction. Instead, it's all Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX everywhere.

Of course, I go on in that post and elsewhere to make all kinds of predictions about the future, so your mileage may vary.

I think I can do a decent job of putting myself in the frame of mind of an oligarch or a crazy cat lady. If I was an oligarch, I think I would see diminishing returns from all of this and be able to project disaster in the future if this continues.

Chosen at random from my favorite X feed today:

Astrophysicist or scholar? pic.twitter.com/3tTm4hXL9P

— RadioGenoa (@RadioGenoa) April 22, 2025

If there ever was a "plan," then the oligarchs, who, by the analysis of the right-wing pundits, must be rational actors, would see that their "plan" has been blown to bits by reality. Rational actors don't keep throwing good money or effort after bad.

Crazy cat ladies, on the other hand, act from emotion, not reason. Their payoffs are, err, sustainable, as it were. They are impervious to evidence.