... it feels to me like we're watching a boxing match between two cancer patients.
Over at Front Page, Dan Greenfield posted an excellent essay that sums up a lot of what I'm thinking.
Russia, with a birth rate of 1.5 children per woman, has invaded Ukraine, where the birth rate is 1.2 children per woman, to determine which nation with below replacement birth rates will go extinct the fastest. In the long run the only winners of the war to determine whether Ukraine will belong to the 1.2 or 1.5 people will be the Chechen and other Muslim soldiers doing the fighting.
The Chechens have a birth rate of 2.5. Their religion and mosques are more likely to inherit the territories they are fighting over than either the Russian or Ukrainian Orthodox churches.
Germany's birthrate is similar. If I recall my back-of-the-envelope calculations, in the next generation, Germany's population will fall from 80M to 56M. That's 24M fewer krauts, all without a shot being fired.
Trump correctly posed the question, what in the world are we doing defending societies that don't see a need to provide for their own defenses? I'd extend that to, what in the world are we doing defending societies that don't see a need to provide for their continued existence. If all goes well, Ukraine's population will drop from 44M to 26M. If they win, they'll lose 18M dudes and dudettes.
If memory serves, Poland is in even worse shape and once the Russkies reduce Ukraine to rubble, they'll be right on the border of the new Russian Empire.
If I were king, I'd have dropped the whole thing in the Germans' and Poles' laps. It's your continent, you go defend it. I'd have suggested to England that they stay out of this. Closest person to the problem wins, man. If you're not going to bother creating a future generation of Germans, much less defending the ones you've already got with a proper army, then I'm not going to bother with worrying about your future, either.
As an aside, I loved this meme.
When all you care about are your groins and your wallets, kids and armies get in the way. Oh well.
1 comment:
Actually, that meme is a big part of the reason why Germany was able to get away with very little military spending for a long time. France, the UK, the rest of Europe, and the US didn't (and probably still don't) really fully *trust* Germany. The US looking after Germany's defense so that Germany wouldn't be able to throw their weight around was considered a desirable feature by all concerned (including the US) until fairly recently.
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