Shipping costs will be impacted by fuel costs, but that's not the whole cost of shipping. There's the labor of the deckhands on the ship, the insurance for the vehicles, repair and upkeep and so on. Oil and gas are important, but a tripling of the price of fuel won't triple the cost of shipping.
Instead, wouldn't you expect shipping to expand and home delivery and telework to increase? It seems to me that the least efficient way to use fuel is to put me in my 3000# Nissan Altima and have me drive 15 miles each way to work or 2 miles to the grocery store. I've got to work and I've got to get food and there's no way our housing structure is going to be completely reworked to put me closer to where I need to go. I live in suburbia and it's totally irrational to think that we're going to tear all that down and build efficient, human anthills.
To me, this suggests that we're going to reduce individual transportation and replace it with more efficient delivery and telework to the extent that it is possible.
Does that make sense?
5 comments:
"It seems to me that the least efficient way to use fuel is to put me in my 3000# Nissan Altima and have me drive 15 miles each way to work or 2 miles to the grocery store"
Wouldn't it be even *less* efficient for you to commute using a jetpack over the same distance? I understand those things suck down several gallons of fuel per minute.
Might be more fun than driving, though.
You ignore my plans for a teleporter. It only takes 43 megawatts per mile!
After a year of pondering, Qwest has decided that it doesn't want people telecommuting for the most part. They aren't saying everyone can't, but they've now stopped paying for people's internet access at home.
Personally, I don't get as much done at home as at work. But that's just me.
We also use a delivery service for groceries. They drive through our neighborhood just about every day, I can't imagine that's more efficent. But maybe.
UPS: Grocery! Now partnered with Alice.com!
I think that the inefficiency associated with fuel is forcing increased efficiency in the workplace by allowing people to telework more frequently.
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