Wednesday, August 13, 2008

A Bad Move for Russia?

It appears I'm not alone in thinking that the invasion of Georgia was a bad move for Russia.
Russia may have smashed its tiny neighbour but victory will come at a heavy price. The war will reduce rather than increase Russia's stature abroad, where the Kremlin faces growing isolation...

For all its big-power bluster, Russia is weak and vulnerable. Russian tanks and aircraft may have smashed the fledgeling Georgian Army with ease, but most of the weaponry was Cold War-era and many of the troops conscripts. Anyone who has seen the Russian Army operating in the Caucasus knows that the military will need a generation to modernise. Meanwhile America, and its main Nato allies, are decades ahead in military technology and combat experience.

Russia is also facing a severe demographic crisis. Its population is shrinking by 700,000 people a year. The UN estimates the population will fall below 100 million by 2050, down from around 146 million today.

As for the economy, it is booming thanks to natural resources that account for 70 per cent of the country's wealth. But the oil price is in a state of flux. Russia has failed to diversify. Should energy prices fall sharply, the economy could collapse, as it did a decade ago.

4 comments:

B-Daddy said...

KT,
I tend to disagree. Russia has shown up the West's impotence in dealing with their aggression. Russia's oil and gas reserves will ensure that the normally spineless euros will be especially supine. See Victor Davis Hanson's analysis.

K T Cat said...

I think charges of impotence are premature. Turkey isn't going to give flyover rights and neither is Iran. Russia won't pay for this in the short term, but in the long run, this seems to have been a bad move.

Wollf Howlsatmoon said...

Yah.....but....militarily, I can see the Ruskie point of view on this. Putin and friends have long worried about the Georgian State becoming a member of NATO....

*whose sole existence is or was to defend against Russia...*

Think the US of A would welcome Mexico and Canada joining the Warsaw Pact?

Just sayin.....

K T Cat said...

Wollf, I'd agree if I could find a way to equate NATO with the Warsaw Pact. A NATO Georgia would have gone in a whacked the Ossetian separatists, but they hardly had imperial designs on Russia.

In any case, NATO is proving themselves culturally ill-equipped to handle the situation.