Wednesday, February 13, 2008

I Don't See McCain Losing to Obama

...or Hillary, for that matter. The comparisons are too striking. McCain can just clobber Obama with the experience issue, particularly in a time of war. Obama has made any number of staggeringly naive statements about foreign policy. Meanwhile, McCain carries almost no Bush baggage with him because he's been such a loose cannon for the last 8 years. While Hillary has not been able to beat Obama with the experience argument, her losses have been confined to Democratic voters. Over halfway through the campaign, Obama is still only getting 50-60% of them. You don't need many of them crossing over to vote for the experienced McCain to win.

Meanwhile, Hillary is Hillary. She is simply the most hated politician in the country. She can't possibly win because she starts with such a huge disadvantage. That's even before Bill gets out on the campaign trail again and starts saying ridiculous things. I don't see the Republicans making any gains at all in the legislature, but I sure think McCain can win the presidency.

I think that the presidential election will be about the person and the congressional elections will be about the parties. There's no question that the Republicans have completely obliterated their brand through corruption and incompetence. They deserve to be beaten there. I just think that McCain will be such an obviously superior choice that he will win.

As an aside, there was a great commentary piece in the Wall Street Journal yesterday called McCain and the talk show hosts. Here's a taste of it.
Half a dozen talk-radio hosts whose major talent is that, like hairdressers, they can talk all day long to one client after another as they snip, have decided that the presumptive Republican nominee does not hew sufficiently close to their gospel.

As anyone who has listened to them knows, the depth of their thought is truly Oprah-like. And if a great institution of the left can weigh-in as it does in the choice of a nominee, why not its fraternal twins on the right? It doesn't matter that Mitt Romney, suddenly their Reagan, became a conservative in a flash of light sometime last year, or that their other champion, a populist theocrat, is in many ways as conservative as Vladimir Lenin. The task is to stop the devil McCain.
The links are mine, not the author's. In any case, I loved it.

Update: Uncle Jimbo over at Blackfive went to an Obama rally and found it to be like a rock concert. That will work in the primaries, but I can't imagine it will sell far beyond that.


Jeff Miller said...

It really depends on what kind of campaign he runs against Obama. It is really never the question of who is more experienced. Look at Bush/Clinton and Dole/Clinton. Their resumes were much better and Pres Bush had the perfect resume.

Actually I think there is a lot of Bush/McCain baggage since almost everything that annoyed conservatives about Bush - McCain supported and of course the war which is still seen as a large issue for liberals and moderates McCain supported. If anything the only Bush/McCain divide was over embryonic stem-cells which McCain has shifted his position on. They were lock-step together on immigration.

The big issue this time around as is often the case is the economy and for some insane reasons which I can't fathom, Democrats are seen as being better on the economy in general. Even though the economy is nowhere near what the media says it is - it is the perception that we are going into a major recession that matters. Remember Clinton's assertion of the worst economy in 50 years which was so silly, but eaten up by the press?

McCain's comment "The issue
of economics is not something I've understood as well as I should," McCain said. "I've got Greenspan's book." With comments like that he can be eaten up alive.

McCain would do much better against Hillary who has tons of baggage. With Obama he needs to do major battle and not concede anything. The press as usual is going to be one hundred percent behind Obama and even though he has no substantive ideas ans is running as a new Democrat like Bill Clinton, this doesn't matter to the vast populace.

McCain strength normally is with moderates and independents and I think Obama will eat into this since he is much more appealing, though on a more vapid level.

I hope McCain runs a very strong campaign and that he realizes it will be no cakewalk since he has to defeat both the media and Obama who is drawing crowds. He needs to unite the base and I hope he talks about Obama the same way he did in the letter he wrote him two years ago.

B-Daddy said...

KT Cat,
I thought McCain's speech last night was much better than Obama's. But I heard Chris Matthews and that bespectacled dufus, (Olberman maybe) whose name eludes me on MSNBC, talking about how much better Obama's speech was. I am at a loss. I know I really liked a speech when I can remember significant portions of it. All I remember from Obama is "hope" and "yes we can." From memory, McCain: "I seek the presidency not from a belief that destiny has called me to save my country. But rather, I seek the presidency to serve, because my country first saved me." You know it's true and you know he means it. That's what makes it powerful.

Rose said...

Obama's starting to sound like a southern precher.

But don't rule out that rock star thing. It's how we ended up with our DA - same kind of message - he was for "change." He said nothing specific. People saw in him what they wanted to see in a politician, which created a beautiful facade on an empty core. And the people worshipped their creation. It's Chancy Gardner x1000.

We're paying the price for it. And that's what scares me about Obama.

K T Cat said...

I understand Obama's magnetism, but how many people will it sell? First off, as long as Rush and Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham deflate their egos a bit, I think it will be safe to say that Obama won't pull in any Republican votes. That leaves, say, 60% of the country. Out of that 60%, don't you think you'll find 11% who are concerned about substance and not style? That's what I'm betting on.

Jeff Miller said...

The differences in the speech probably fall along the famous JFK/Nixon speech where those who heard it on the radio thought Nixon won and those who saw it on TV thought JFK won.

This just makes might point that there is so much vapidness in politics today that people can make decision based on nothing really substantive. Like the now famous Fox news piece where 22 Obama supporters were asked what he had done that they liked and they had to cue the crickets because not one of them could think of anything.

Kelly the little black dog said...

With all due respect to McCain, it would be a serious blunder for him to underestimate the support for Obama. I agree with Jeff, its going to come down to the kind of campaign they both run, but also what happens in the world over the next nine months. People care more about the economy now than national security. If it flips back, McCain definitely has the leg up, otherwise, for now at least, its neck and neck.

K T Cat said...

22 Obama supporters were asked what he had done that they liked and they had to cue the crickets because not one of them could think of anything.

Obama is so extreme in this regard that I can't see him managing to win. How far can you drive on an empty tank?

Jeff Miller said...

Well he has driven on that empty tank far enough to pull in front of Hillary.

Never underestimate the shallowness of some voters.

Dean said...

B-Daddy, Olberman and the man who goes weak in the knees at the very sight of the "rock star"... consider the sources.

McCain's speech was inspired.

KT, you've been linked and all you commenters have been "soft-linked" if there is such a term.

Anonymous said...

Blogger Jeff Miller said...

Well he has driven on that empty tank far enough to pull in front of Hillary.

Never underestimate the shallowness of some voters.

I think you mean "the majority of voters."

Ohioan@Heart said...

Jeff has it right.

"No one has ever gone broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public" - HL Mencken

That's what can win it for Obama.

Anonymous said...

"There's a sucker born every minute" P T Barnum

That's why McCain has a fighting chance.

Anonymous said...

Just heard Obama wrote the Global Poverty Act. Not only do the Rich have their money given to the poor in this country, Obama wants to give their money to every poor person in the world.

K T Cat said...

The Global Poverty Act is well-named. It will make us all poor.