Thursday, January 11, 2018

The West Will End Not With A Bang, But A Simulated Whimper

A set of data points submitted in no particular order and without comment. See if you can spot a theme.

First

The survey was carried out by public broadcasters among all adults in Germany, but figures separating women's and men's answers were not released.

According to a survey, now more than half of the German population would not mind if their partner had sex with a sex doll or robot and twenty per cent are considering buying one.

Second 


Fertility rates. 2.05 or so is the population replacement rate.

Third

In a section claiming Google tries to “stifle” conservative parenting styles, the suit reads: “Google furnishes a large number of internal mailing lists catering to employees with alternative lifestyles, including furries, polygamy, transgenderism, and plurality, for the purpose of discussing sexual topics. The only lifestyle that seems to not be openly discussed on Google’s internal forums is traditional heterosexual monogamy.”

A footnote next to the word “plurality” adds: “For instance, an employee who sexually identifies as ‘a yellow-scaled wingless dragonkin’ and ‘an expansive ornate building’ presented a talk entitled ‘Living as a Plural Being’ at an internal company event.”

Fourth


Marriage rates in the US.

Fifth


In fact, in important ways the social justice approach — which emphasizes the dynamics of power and oppression — that many fear has taken over the humanities and social sciences at its best is actually an improvement over the “disinterested pursuit of truth” and more in line with the Socratic method. In fact, rather than constituting an attack on knowledge, the social justice lens reflects new ideas generated by academic disciplines and experts within them, and generally encourages expanding our knowledge and opening up subjects to new perspectives, much like Socrates advocated.
H/T: Ilion.

8 comments:

tim eisele said...

Here's what I think is going on with the low birthrates:

For all of the history of the human species two particular traits have been selected for: desire to have sex, and desire to have children. And the sex desire was probably the more strongly selected of the two. Many, perhaps even most, children were born primarily because their parents wanted sex so bad that they were willing to accept having children as a consequence. The desire to have children was then also selected for, because if the parents really hated kids, the kids probably wouldn't live to grow up. And until pretty recently, this was necessary for the survival of the species because in order to have an average of two children reach adulthood and have children of their own, a couple would have to have five or six kids, even though pregnancy is enough of an ordeal that most women don't want to go through it more often than necessary.

But that has changed. On the one hand, if we have two or three children, the odds are very good that all of them will grow up. And on the other hand. it is possible to have sex without necessarily having children as a result. So what does this do? It removes most of the selection pressure to desire sex. And now, the trait that is selected for, that leads people to have kids, is a desire to have and care for kids.

So what I think we are seeing right now, is most of the people who don't particularly want or like kids (but who used to have kids anyway, because they craved sex) are not having kids. And the kids that are being born are disproportionately born to parents who actually want them, and not just tolerate them. So until all the child-haters finish removing themselves from the population, we are going to see depressed birthrates. But then, everyone will be descended from parents who actually wanted them, and therefore will have a greater chance of wanting kids themselves. And birthrates will rise back up to replacement level again. I expect this will play out over a fairly short time, maybe three or four generations (around 60 to 80 years), and we are about thirty years into this period.

And, I don't actually think this is a problem in the long run. Ultimately, the unwanted and unloved child will become a thing of the past, leading to a happier, healthier, and more law-abiding society. And it won't be a result of intentional eugenics, or government action, or religious exhortations. It will just be a question of everything working itself out given time.

IlĂ­on said...

The sacrifice demanded by the great god O is babies. Live ones are best, but never conceived will do in a pinch.

K T Cat said...

Tim, if that was the case, then after a time, the fertility rate would return to 2.05 as the population hits a new, lower equilibrium point. I haven't seen any indication of that.

Kelly the little black dog said...

http://www.funnyordie.com/articles/8f5be33b27/your-prime-membership-includes-a-free-kid

tim eisele said...

KT: Well, it's early yet. We'll see. I would note that right now, maybe one and a half generations into the change, I'd expect the birthrate to be bottoming. And Sweden, at least, is showing some signs of rebound. I understand that the population of Sweden were particularly early adopters of birth control, making them maybe an extra half-generation or so into the selection process.

In any case, it doesn't really matter whether you are convinced or not. This is one of those things that, if it happens, it will happen on its own, not as a result of anyone campaigning for or against it. Whether or not anyone believes it is happening is rather beside the point.

Kelly the little black dog said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Kelly the little black dog said...

Tim, you might find this of interest:

http://sciencenordic.com/why-norwegian-birth-rates-are-higher-rest-europe

Similar thing happening in all of Scandinavia.

Foxfier said...

Right along with the pill there's been a bleeping dooms-day cult that screws people up so much that I've had more strangers walk up and scold me for having kids than I have had strangers say something like "Huh, five? Nice!" (I don't count the "Are they all yours?" questions, that's usually just small-talk.)

Being told that have kids shows you're an idiot who wants to destroy the world, especially when it starts about first grade or so, is going to have an effect.
(Sometimes not the one intended. Only had one moron try to call my mother uneducated, and they really didn't like hearing about my college-educated, profession-having grandmothers, who had even more kids than my mom! But not everyone is...er...has mind odd mindset.)