So Texans are getting semi-serious about secession. I've started wondering what would happen if they got
really serious and began voting on it. How far would the Federals go this time to prevent a breakup of the Union?
In Chechnya, they wanted to secede, but the Russians didn't want to let that happen. The Russians went in and flattened the place. Can you imagine Barack Obama ordering that under any circumstances? Can you imagine any president ordering it? Wouldn't it be more likely that the rest of us would want to get back to our bongs and gay pride parades and let them leave?
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| I'm guessing we wouldn't be willing to go this far. |
Second, if things got out of hand and there were some accidental massacres of innocents, imagine what Texan secessionists might be able to do to Federal infrastructure outside of Texas. Aqueducts, train tracks, SAM attacks on jetliners, freeway bridges over canyons, there's a lot of indefensible stuff out there and weapons favor insurgencies now much more than they did in the 1860s.
Third, how would you move your troops and how many of them would fight? The states surrounding Texas are pretty sympathetic to the cause and the military is disproportionately Southern in demographics. There aren't many Berkeley socialists' kids picking up rifles and shovels these days.
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| The red-blue county map from the election. That's a lot of hostile red territory right there. Supply lines would be threatened at all points. |
Finally, what would be the Federals' rallying cry? Here are some options:
- Save Dodd-Frank!
- Gay marriage or death!
- Make them pay their fair share!
- Keep Church and State perfectly separate everywhere!
Therein lies the biggest problem for the Federals. When the rebellion is against shapeless, all-enveloping statism, there's not much to rally public opinion behind what would be a very nasty war. There would be no simplifying cause like slavery this time. It would just be an attempt to save a ginormous, sightless, all-consuming grub of Federal regulations and taxes.
Would you be willing to let your child die for that?