Once the risks of the Wuhan Flu drop into the region of the standard, annual flu or pneumonia, we should go back to normal. We weren't wearing masks and avoiding each other for those so we shouldn't be neurotic for this.
I haven't done the calculations, but just on a gut feel, we hit the equivalency point about a month ago, once almost all of the high-risk people had been vaccinated. It's all a charade now.
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| And above all, take off the mask when you're outside. The image came from this excellent Twitter thread. |
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ReplyDeleteMaybe not.
ReplyDelete"And above all, take off the mask when you're outside."
ReplyDeleteWell, now, that depends. On the one hand, if you are outside without a mask at this point and somebody starts giving you grief about it, then yes, they can get stuffed.
But if, on the other hand, someone is wearing a mask themselves, but are not otherwise mentioning it in any way, and you take it upon yourself to harangue them about how they don't need it outdoors, then I would say that it is you that would need stuffing.
You know, free country, my business, mind your own, etc.
Two things...
ReplyDelete1) Tim - Agree completely. However, it is my experience that our government (at least here in CA) is rabidly in the first of your two cases, and the people I've heard express either of those are also in the first category. Indeed, I have yet to hear ANYONE harangue anyone else to take off their mask. I've gotten my second shot and have turned back into the person I was before CoViD (at least w.r.t. mask wearing outside). I will, at least for now, follow the requirements that individual businesses are imposing. It won't be too long until I start wearing this t-shirt (see: https://chickteely.com/product/anti-mask-identifies-as-a-mask-funny-unique/?gclid=Cj0KCQjwvr6EBhDOARIsAPpqUPGw-kxAjUtzO7VOyOQahyOG2a27JtVrN7Md8Hgwzr4kHhV2c4OzJ3QaAjBuEALw_wcB).
2) KT - "Once the risks of the Wuhan Flu drop into the region of the standard, annual flu or pneumonia, we should go back to normal. ... I haven't done the calculations, but just on a gut feel, we hit the equivalency point about a month ago". Why settle for gut feel? The two obvious metrics to use would be cases and deaths. The data for the last ten years are available here: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html#:~:text=While%20the%20impact%20of%20flu,61%2C000%20deaths%20annually%20since%202010.
Average annual flu cases are 29,000,000. If we assume that the flu really is only an issue from NOV-APR, that's an average of 169,000/day. CoViD cases during the period Nov 1, 2020 - Apr 30, 2021 was about 130,000 cases/day, and for Nov-Jan it was about 190,000 cases/day. That generally agrees with your gut feel.
Average annual flu deaths are 36,000 (200/day). CoViD deaths, for the same two time periods I just used for cases, are 1,900 deaths/day and 2,440 deaths/day. The last 10 days have seen almost 730 deaths/day. Just to note that the worst year for the flu (2017-2018), saw about 340 deaths/day. Clearly the death rate for CoViD is the worst flu we've seen in long time (like since 1917). Maybe this isn't such a good match to your gut feel.
On the other hand, so far as I know, no one who has taken any of the vaccines has died of CoViD. If that's right, then even the most paranoid among us, should no longer see any issue with going back to a mask-less society. I certainly don't. And yes, that means as far as I'm concerned, for those who choose to not take the vaccine (and I support their right to make that choice) the current CoViD deaths are Darwinian evolution in action.
"even the most paranoid among us, should no longer see any issue with going back to a mask-less society"
ReplyDeleteI personally would like us not to go completely back to maskless. It would be good if masks just became a thing that people could wear or not as they felt necessary, without being treated like a germophobic freak for wearing one. I never liked the way that people would act as if it was some kind of virtuous act to come to work or school in spite of being sick, and then proceed to cough and sneeze and rub their infectious mucous all over everything.
The last time I caught a disease was at the end of February 2020 (I picked up one of the varieties of "convention crud" at a technical conference). I started wearing a mask regularly immediately after that, and I have not caught any contagious diseases in over a year now. My wife and daughters also wear their masks, and have also not caught anything in over a year. I have been going in to work in-person since mid-summer. My daughters have been attending a public school, in person, since September, which traditionally has been a festering pesthouse of disease. My wife's job involves visiting peoples homes, apartments, offices, and cars to work with their locks, and so she is interacting with a variety of people on a daily basis. We have been living in the manner that used to cause us all to get sick several times a year. But now? Nothing.
If wearing a piece of cloth over my face periodically is enough to keep me from getting colds, flu, or contagious vomiting diseases even part of the time, then I plan on continuing to wear one when I think it is appropriate. And if I do get sick, then it is just common courtesy for me to wear one to keep from spreading it around.