Data
Here's the data for California, which is run by people who believe in SCIENCE and have everything properly locked down.
Here's the data for Florida, which is run by bigoted evangelicals who hate SCIENCE and have allowed private citizens to run wild in the streets.
The bigger question, however, is one of reference points. Is 3,116 new cases a big number? Is it bigger than the flu right now? Is it smaller than pneumonia? Is it as deadly has a hangnail or is it like being shot in the head?
What am I supposed to do with that graph?
Our Cantor of Chemistry has similar issues, albeit stated with a good deal more rigor even though he hates SCIENCE.
Our Goober has made the location of the goal posts fluid and uncontrollable. Actually they have become so idiotic and convoluted that based on the explanations I've seen (admittedly filtered through former journalism majors), I simply can not say that I understand them sufficiently that I could actually calculate them. Hey, I've got a Ph.D. in Analytical Chemistry, published peer reviewed articles in a bunch of physics journals, and taught myself the mathematics of General Relativity for fun, but clearly I should have known that this is just so complicated that I probably shouldn't have expected to be able to understand it.
Read the whole thing, if you dare.
Masks
Look, I have no problem wearing masks inside of stores. Wearing masks outside is simply idiotic. Watching politicians give speeches outdoors while wearing masks makes me want to add a dunce cap to their outfit.
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| No one is within 20 feet of you, you dork. |
I guess I just hate SCIENCE.
Maybe It's Time To Quit
As far as I can reason out, when the Chicom Flu gets within normal flu territory in terms of infections and lethality, it ought to be time to quit the pandemic panic and go back to normal life.
Are we there yet?
"They look pretty much identical to me."
ReplyDeleteWell, yes, aside from the fact that Florida has just over half the population of California (21.5 million versus 39.5 million). Which means that for the raw numbers to be that close, individual Floridians were about twice as likely to catch it as Californians.
As for comparing it with the actual flu, I think it is worth considering that 1) the covid-19 isn't instead of the flu, it is in addition to it, and 2) measures against one are effective for preventing the other. So, if deaths from seasonal flu were just barely tolerable, but you add another disease that kills the same number, between the two of them it has gotten twice as bad (and likely to be more than people want to put up with). And if preventing the second disease also prevents the first disease, you have potential to reduce all those deaths, including the ones that were going to happen before.
And a recent news item: Australia and New Zealand are reporting a dramatic reduction in flu cases/deaths as a result of their public health measures against covid-19, even though it is winter there and should have been the height of their flu season
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/09/17/best-news-quite-while-dramatically-lower-flu-rates-southern-hemisphere-offer-hope
Right, but the shape of it's the same which tells me the same mechanisms are at work, lockdown or not. Florida's unemployment rate as of July was 11.5 while CA was at 13.5. I imagine the difference is larger now.
ReplyDeleteIf you're going to do a lockdown, it ought to have a decent ROI. I could have done Texas instead of Florida and gotten the same curve, but with an unemployment rate of 8.5.
Finally, check out Ohioan's blog post. It's crammed with similar head-scratchers from CA.
Tim,
ReplyDeleteWho cares about the population numbers or case numbers? I don't and you shouldn't either (in fact I like big case numbers - with the following caveat). What I do care about is deaths (and I'm willing to bet you do as well). Anything else is irrelevant. Remember it was deaths (and ICU capacity, and hospitalizations, and PPE availability - which where the best leading indicators we had for deaths) that was the reason we needed to lockdown for two weeks to 'flatten the curve' - SIX MONTHS AGO. Still, let's compare the deaths. Well FL looks just like CA. But the two states have virtually identical rates of deaths. It is the demographics of the population that explain that (FL isn't known as a retirement state for nothin'!).
As to wondering what happens to the death tolls, when we add multiple diseases together, I could not agree more that that is important. So far (data from CDC site) the excess death toll nation wide since the end of March (which is the first time a clear excess occurs in 2020 vs average 2015-2019) is just over 251,000. But the total CoViD deaths (which no one thinks are being UNDERcounted) is only about 201,000. Where did the other 50,000 come from? That's 20% unaccounted for! It isn't the flu (at least according to the CDC numbers). I can't say where they are from, but I can't help but wonder if they are the unintended consequence of the lockdowns/economic strangulation (suicide, domestic abuse, or maybe even people not being able/willing to get proper medical care for other conditions jump to my mind as possibilities). This points out that the only thing that matters is that we protect those over 65 (and anyone with a significant underlying medical issue). If we do that, we can go back to normal.
Oh, and as to masks, I also wear mine whenever I'm inside of a 'public' space (like a grocery store). But it also brings to mind the joke that if you drive in your car, alone, wearing a mask, the 'Biden' bumper sticker is redundant.
Oh and I forgot: KT, thanks for the link.
ReplyDeleteO@H, I'll be visiting your blog, now that I know about it.
ReplyDeleteYou're welcome, Ohioan.
ReplyDeleteI keep going back to the shape of the curves. If the transmission methods were what the lockdowners said they were, then the two places would have different curve shapes. Remember all the panic about Florida when they opened up? Everyone was going to die. Instead, nothing happened that made the Florida curve look different.
Meh. This was a waste of time. Save the vulnerable, wear masks indoors if it makes other people feel safer and get on with life.