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Friday, November 02, 2012

We're Not At War With The Nazis

... the budget deficit just looks like it.

The Weekly Standard recently published a comparison between US deficit today and during WW II. Looking at tables of data supplied by the government, here is the relevant tidbit.

Fiscal Year 2005 $ % GDP
1943 -531.7 -30.3
1944 -501.1 -22.7
1945 -525.4 -21.5
2009 -1,274.4 -10.1
2010 -1,153.0 -9.0
2011 -1,127.6 -8.7

It looks like the data goes both ways. In real dollars, we're borrowing more, but in terms of GDP we're borrowing less. I say "it looks like" because when you think about it, the data really doesn't go both ways.

First, it tells you that we are a much wealthier country. Wealthier by a factor of 6, in fact. Comparing '43 with '09, the deficit is twice as high, yet only 1/3 the portion of GDP.

Second, we're not fighting a war, we're paying bills. A case could be made for the deficit in '09 being caused by a banking collapse, but after that, it's just making payroll. Payroll is anyone getting a check from the government, working or not and that's the vast majority of the money we spend. Borrowing to make payroll is usually a very, very bad sign.

At first glance, this suggests that we are completely out of control as a society. The people of a wealthier country should require less government assistance and a nation at peace should not have to borrow money to make payroll.

I'm open to other interpretations.

3 comments:

  1. More on that here.

    In short, we got out of that by immediately running balanced budgets plus a big helping of inflation (debt devaluation).

    Well, the odds of anything close to a balanced budget are zero, so we'll probably need even more dollar devaluation this time.

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  2. Except we have been fighting two wars. and some sort of ill defined action. Or have you forgotten.

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  3. Iraq and Afghanistan aren't exactly Europe and the Pacific. Iraq in particular has wound down to almost nothing, yet the deficit is still high.

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