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Friday, January 30, 2009

What a Modern Trade War Might Look Like

Consider this: America is about to strip the rest of the world of investment money to go on a stimulus porkapalooza wherein we will buy only American goods. Consider what this might look like to foreign governments.

What will happen when foreign newspapers start reporting that their governments are invested in American Treasuries that are helping to feed protectionist spending sprees? If you were, say, Japanese, wouldn't you be unhappy with this? Wouldn't you want your government to stop the outflow of yen into the US? Why support a country that is preventing you from doing business with them?

I would think that foreign governments might quickly consider some moratorium on the purchase of American Treasuries to quell their voters' unhappiness with US protectionism. Imagine trying to finance trillions of dollars of stimulus under those conditions.

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