Friday, April 22, 2011

Handicapping 2012

... would seem to be a fool's errand. Consider these facts:
  • We're running $1.5T deficits - far higher than anything we've ever done before.

  • The Fed is printing $600B a year of unbacked dollars to cover these deficits, something they've never done before.

  • Gold and oil are hitting new highs with regularity.

  • The EU is facing an existential crisis because of debt and it looks now like both Greece and Portugal will have to restucture their debts, wiping out tens of billions of dollars of bonds held by private, European banks.

  • The full effects of the Japanese earthquake have yet to be felt as the Japanese are borrowing like never before in an environment where their total debt is higher than ever before.
If there are large, ahistoric forces at work in the world and large, important parts of the world are unstable, why would you think that historical analyses of presidential races would apply?

It's a better bet that at least one major event will occur in the next 12 months that will have a dramatic affect on our lives than it is that some pundit can use statistics from a relatively stable previous few decades to predict the next presidential election.


tim eisele said...

Yes. Especially considering that in the last elections, the pundits were mostly predicting that the final candidates would be Giuliani and Clinton. And we all saw how that worked out.

Rose said...

The funny thing is - all the excitement, new blood, new ideas, passion and fire in the belly are ALL on the Republican side. All the dems have a re Clinton retreads and death-warmed-over types like Harry Reid and Pelosi.

Indignant as the media is, jumping up and down in fury in their zeal to destroy all comers with an R after their name, we are where the action is.

They will tell us, about every single candidate "She can't win." "He can't win." And they will continue to dig through Sarah Palin's garbage cans in their fruitless efforts to stop her momentum.

But this time - there is an Army of Davids, armed with blogs, Twitter and Facebook to shoot down biased reporting.

We have a shot. Obama is an abject failure. Handicapping 2012 should include the possibility that he resigns in disgrace.

K T Cat said...

Rose, you're exactly right. The reactionaries in today's America are the progressives. We followed their prescriptions for equality and fairness and have managed neither while stealing $14T from GenY. The Democrats, the President, Hollywood, the educational establishment and the MSM are now all fighting frantic rearguard actions as their utopian dreams disintegrate.

Rose said...

I know you follow education spending - can you help me fact check this statement:

"In the last three years, we've seen $20,000,000,000 in cuts to schools and colleges. 40,000 educators have been laid off. Class sizes have soared. Entire art, music, and P.E. programs have been eliminated. College tuition has more than doubled. So far, lawmakers refuse to vote on tax extensions that could spare our state from deeper cuts. We are in a state of emergency." (Cover of California Educator April '11)

I don't even know where to begin. But my 15 year old just dutifully passed it along on her Facebook - and I want to answer it with facts. She has NO IDEA what "lawmakers refuse to vote on tax extensions" means.

If you can direct me to any sources of info - would love that, it's not an issue I keep up on, generally.